I’m not the right person to address this but I think it’s a fascinating question, prompted by this analysis of the failed Mastodon migration:
Results from longitudinal analysis of Mastodon user data showed
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.04005v2
that the initial surge in sign-ups did not translate into sustained
long-term user engagement. Most recent user activity on Twitter
reveals that many academics in our dataset returned to using Twitter actively. Further analysis of engagement metrics reveals that
the level of established history, as well as the strong communities
established on Twitter, with some over a decade, proved too significant to overcome. Without a complete migration of user history,
and established community, professionals will naturally gravitate
back to familiar platforms where their communities are already
established through years.
So perhaps you need to be able to quickly recreate the existing network which has push (hostility towards Musk post-election) and pull (starter pack) factors, coupled with an easy to grasp interface that inclines users towards immediate posting. Is there a tipping point like in the great migration, where there’s enough of a stampede from the old place to the new place, that most people get across without losing their (digital) life i.e. social capital?
This matters greatly because if enshittification is a dynamic which all commercial social platforms will be prone to, academics are going to have to make more movements in the future. Or learn to content themselves with platforms which are probably immune to enshittification such as Mastodon but which might not scratch the itch for virality and recognition that years of Twitter left them with.
Mark Carrigan 