I found this mind blowing from Ethan Mollock. I understood the three new modalities which are coming with GAI (machine vision, machine speech and connecting it your own data) combined with performance increases sparked by Google’s Gemini. But it hadn’t occurred to me that these things will be combined:

We have these pieces which let us guess at the shape of the AI in front of us. It isn’t science fiction to assume that AIs will soon talk to you, see you, know about you, do research for you, create images for you – because all of that is already built, and working. I can already pull all of these elements together myself with just a little effort. That means AI can quite easily serve as personal assistant, intern, and companion – answering emails, giving advice, paying attention to the world around you — in a way that makes the Siris and Alexas of the world look prehistoric. It also suggests unexpected corporate and government uses, as AI, with these capabilities, can act as a ubiquitous helpful coach, or troubling panopticon, by observing and listening, intervening with advice or instructions.

https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/the-shape-of-the-shadow-of-the-thing