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The three forces that will drive the rollout of generative AI

This is great from Dave Karpf in a critique of Ethan Mollick’s recent advocacy of the creative gains which can be accrued through working with generative AI. The problem I see is that the two sets of claims are not mutually exclusive, driving my current oscillation between creative excitement and sociological despair:

  1. Silicon Valley pitch decks that overpromise and underdeliver. This is the gospel of startup culture. Create a “minimum viable product.” Make a ton of mistakes, constantly pivot, and try to find a market segment that will grow. Ignore existing regulations, break all the rules. We’re building the future here. All the great businesses did a little creative accounting when they were getting started.
  2. Cost-cutting efforts among existing industries. We’re already seeing this in journalism, just like absolutely every critic predicted. Generative AI cannot, today, come close to producing replacement-rate journalism. But plenty of shoddy media organizations are deploying it anyway because (a) it saves money and (b) C-suite executives believe it will surely get better soon.
  3. Chasing large-dollar government and legacy industrial contracts. The startup ecosystem is judged on nothing but potential. It’s vibes. The actual money for most of tech has been in SaaS (software as a service). The big financial upside for AI companies is going to come through locking in long-term service contracts with government agencies and legacy industries. There, once again, all the incentives point toward overpromising and underdelivering.
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