Data Science Lunchtime Seminars: Andrea Baronchelli
Andrea Baronchelli (City University London)
Unconsciously Rational: Optimal Strategies in Human Mental Searches in Online Auctions
Characterizing how we explore abstract spaces is key to understand our (ir)rational behaviour and decision making. While some light has been shed on the navigation of semantic networks, however, little is known about the mental exploration of metric spaces, such as the one dimensional line of numbers, prices, etc. Here we address this issue by investigating the behaviour of users exploring the “bid space” in online auctions. We find that they systematically perform Lévy flights, i.e., random walks whose step lengths follow a power-law distribution. Interestingly, this is the best strategy that can be adopted by a random searcher looking for a target in an unknown environment, and has been observed in the foraging patterns of many species. In the case of online auctions, we measure the power-law scaling over several decades, providing the neatest observation of Lévy flights reported so far. We also show that the histogram describing single individual exponents is well peaked, pointing out the existence of an almost universal behaviour. Furthermore, a simple model reveals that the observed exponents are nearly optimal, and represent a Nash equilibrium. We rationalize these findings through a simple evolutionary process, showing that the observed behaviour is robust against invasion of alternative strategies. Our results show that humans share with other animals universal patterns in general searching processes, and raise fundamental issues in cognitive, behavioural and evolutionary sciences.
Brown Bag Seminar: Refreshments (pizza and pop) is provided.
If you would like to attend please contact Alex Mushore (alexander.mushore@wbs.ac.uk)
Mark Carrigan 